The regional cut — Vancouver, Toronto, and the provincial spread
2026-07-18 · wave 8 · ESTIMATE lane · quantifies the "politically loud" cases from
analysis/household-incidence.md and feeds the container ruling
(analysis/container-question.md). All data pulled directly from StatCan tables
this wave.
Basis note (w18): dollar net-position figures here are gross-basis; scale ≈0.91 for the net basis (Vancouver detached ≈−$49k/yr). Canonical:
NUMBERS.md.
Data pulled (Canadian Housing Statistics Program, Table 46-10-0093-01, 2023 assessment year)
Median and average assessment values, all residential property types and single-detached, for the CHSP-covered provinces and the two metros that decide the politics:
| Geography | Median, all types | Median, single-detached | Properties |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver CMA | $1,230,000 | $1,700,000 | 842,735 |
| Toronto CMA | $582,000 | $738,000 | 1,885,000 |
| British Columbia | $822,000 | $1,020,000 | 1,834,595 |
| Ontario | $350,000 | $384,000 | 5,120,610 |
| Manitoba | $246,000 | $274,000 | 467,025 |
| Nova Scotia | $172,000 | $205,000 | 452,815 |
| New Brunswick | $110,000 | $144,000 | 380,620 |
Caveats stated up front: CHSP warns that assessment vintages differ across provinces, so cross-province comparisons are approximate (NB's roll in particular lags market); values are 2023; properties are not households (one owner can hold several, and rentals appear as properties not tenant households); residential only.
The two loud cases, quantified
Average-size-household allowance under the national design: $456,000 of
land-value equivalent (from analysis/household-incidence.md). Metro detached land
shares are not yet roll-verified; using a stated 60–80% band for Vancouver/Toronto
detached (assessment-roll verification is the open task):
- Median Vancouver single-detached ($1.70M): implied land $1.02M–$1.36M →
net payer, ≈$31k–$50k/yr. Not marginal — decisively above the line. Detached
owners are a minority of Vancouver-CMA households, but they are the organized,
vocal minority every property reform meets.
Update (w9): the land share is now measured from the City of Vancouver
parcel roll — ~85% in single-family zones — pushing the median-detached net
payment to ≈$54k/yr; see
analysis/vancouver-land-share.md. - Median Toronto single-detached ($738k): implied land $443k–$590k → straddles break-even (from receiving ≈$700/yr to paying ≈$7.4k/yr across the band). The median Toronto detached owner is approximately at the threshold — which means assessment quality and the land-share number are the politics in Toronto.
- Median all-types properties in every covered province — including BC ($822k × land share < allowance in most of the province outside Metro Vancouver) — sit at or below break-even for average-size households.
The provincial spread (total residential value per capita)
Average value × property count ÷ Q2-2026 population:
| Province | Total residential value | Per capita |
|---|---|---|
| British Columbia | $2.00T | $354,000 |
| Ontario | $2.41T | $149,000 |
| Nova Scotia | $0.11T | $104,000 |
| Manitoba | $0.13T | $87,000 |
| New Brunswick | $0.05T | $60,000 |
A 6× spread between BC and New Brunswick. Consequences for the container ruling:
- Provincial pools would pay a BC renter roughly six times what a New Brunswick renter gets (at similar land shares) — the interprovincial birth lottery, entrenched in the dividend itself.
- A national pool makes BC (Metro Vancouver specifically) and the Toronto belt
the financing engine of the scheme, which is exactly Floyd's
Saskatoon-Vancouver question in reverse: the transfer is from the metros that
captured national demand to everywhere else. The moral argument for it (that
value was created nationally) is in
analysis/container-question.md; the political weight of it is now measured. - The layered design's appeal grows with this data: a within-province or within-metro component would let Vancouver's agglomeration rent circulate at home while the nature-layer share equalizes nationally — softening both the BC-pays-for-everyone objection and the 6× dividend spread.
What this changes in the package
- The site's honest-limits/who-pays language stays correct (the median household nationally receives) but must never say "the median homeowner everywhere" — Metro Vancouver detached owners pay, decisively, and Toronto detached owners are at the line. Site copy checked this wave: current wording ("an average-size household starts paying above ≈$456,000 of land") is compatible; the Vancouver case is now quantified in the open-questions card.
- The land-share band (60–80% metro detached) is the weakest link in the loud cases — next ESTIMATE task: verify from BC Assessment roll data, which publishes per-parcel land/improvement splits.
- The container ruling (Floyd's) now has its price tags.
Sources
- Statistics Canada, Table 46-10-0093-01 (CHSP): median/average assessment values and property counts, 2023 assessment year, retrieved 2026-07-18 via WDS coordinate queries. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=4610009301
- Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0009-01: provincial population estimates, Q2 2026, retrieved 2026-07-18.
- CHSP data-quality documentation (assessment-vintage comparability warning): https://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=5257
- Allowance and land-share workings:
analysis/household-incidence.md(this repo).